Mathematical betting strategy

December 13


Mathematical Betting Strategies and Systems – The Full List

Are you looking for a mathematical system to help you profit from sports betting? Much is said about betting, but few will provide you with the tools you need to work on sports betting indeed.

Whether you bet on soccer, basketball, or any other sport, there is one thing that most bettors tend to ignore; mathematics. Yet, mathematically backed strategies have proven to be reliable and result-oriented.

We've chosen some of the most popular, low-risk, high-reward betting strategies for you to try out.  Becoming proficient with the strategies that we recommend below has the potential to convert you from a regular punter into a profitable sports bettor.

Don’t have time to read the full article? Check out the video below instead.

Mathematical Betting Strategies & Tips (Arbitrage Betting)



#1 - Arbitrage Betting

Recommended?    Yes

Arbitrage betting involves betting on all possible outcomes of a single event. In soccer, for instance, you could bet on win, draw, and loss, which would virtually guarantee that one of your bets will win, as you would be covering all the possible outcomes that could eventuate.

Arbitrage betting is only profitable when a number of bookmakers offer quite different odds for a particular event. You can capitalise on these different odds, by betting on the most profitable of each of them and ultimately making money regardless of the outcome.

Because it can be difficult to find these bets, many people use arbitrage bet finders, which can scan the odds across hundreds of bookmakers, sports, leagues and matches for you, alerting you when an arbitrage betting opportunity is found.

However, it is important to remember that arbitrage betting is not entirely without risk, as different bookmakers may have different betting rules for certain sports, and the odds of a particular event can change as you are placing your bets, turning a winning bet into a losing one.

You can learn all about this and more, over at my free arbitrage betting course.

#2 - The Martingale Betting System

Recommended?    No

The Martingale betting system is a method of placing bets by doubling the stake after each loss, with the hope that this will eventually lead to recouping all of the lost funds. It sounds like a good idea in theory, but it's an extremely dangerous way to gamble.

This betting system has reportedly been used on online gambling sites. Players are more likely to keep playing on martingale strategy because they have already lost all of their money anyway, so there is nothing left to lose.

This increases the probability that they will make even more losses by continuing to bet with their last remaining funds.

After a few consecutive losses, your stakes will balloon out to the point where you can no longer afford to place the required bet to recoup your losses to that point. For this reason, this strategy is not recommended, despite its popularity with rookie bettors.

Woman betting on phone

#3 - Value Betting

Recommended?    Yes

Much like arbitrage betting, value betting involves taking advantage of discrepancies in bookmaker odds. When bookmakers have vastly different odds, it’s usually the case that one of the bookies is correct and the other is way off.

Rather than betting with both bookmakers to cover all outcomes, it can make more sense to just bet with the bookmaker with the overpriced odds, capturing that value without paying any vigorish to the bookmaker with the correct odds.

This is the fundamental idea behind value betting.

By avoiding paying vigorish to one of the bookmakers, you can reap much higher profits in the long run, yet you aren’t guaranteed to profit on every match, as you aren’t covering every possible outcome.

This can make value betting a more volatile yet ultimately more profitable strategy than arbitrage betting. Once again, there are value bet finders out there that can automatically find these opportunities for you.

#4 - Matched Betting

Recommended?    Yes

Matched betting is a type of gambling that involves placing bets with two or more bookmakers on the same sporting event, which the punter expects the financial return to be positive regardless of the result.

This may sound like arbitrage betting, but it differs because it involves using the free bets that the bookies offer to boost your profits significantly higher than you could from arbitrage betting alone.

Almost all bookmakers offer some form of signup bonus or reload bonus (eg. deposit $500 and get an extra $500 in bonus bets) plus ongoing promotions (if your team is up at half time, your bet will be paid out, if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, your bet will be paid out).

There’s a lot of value in these promotions and you can use them to make plenty of money. People who get matched betting right can make more than £1,000 per month using this method.

Matched bets are a hedging strategy. You are only using your money to bet on one of two possible outcomes while using the free bet offered by the other bookmaker to protect yourself from losing.

Some people may think that it requires too much time and effort to be worth it. It does require time and effort, but it also offers a high return on investment.

The way to make the most of it is to use a matched betting site.

Matched betting is most popular in the UK and Australia.

#5 - Fibonacci Betting System

Recommended?    No

The Fibonacci betting system is a betting strategy first used by a mathematician named Edward O. Thorp in 1961. It's a variation of the Martingale betting strategy, but more complicated.

Again, it involves chasing your losses by betting larger and larger stakes each time you lose, and smaller stakes once you win.

Rather than simply doubling your stakes however, you increase them accordingly with the Fibonacci sequence (a mathematical sequence of numbers whereby each number is the sum of the two numbers that came before it).

As with the Martingale, this eventually leads to a situation where you can’t afford to bet a high enough stake to recoup your losses. You ultimately risk more money than you would have otherwise.

#6 - The Paroli System

Recommended?    No

The Paroli strategy is a betting system in which the stake is increased based on the profits. As a result, you have a stake X that will grow as you hit bets. When you reach a certain number of hits, you save the winnings and start over.

If your bet fails at any point in the progression, you return to the initial stake and begin again.

While the Paroli system is better than the Martingale or Fibonacci betting systems, as it doesn’t have you chasing your losses with ever increasing stakes, it doesn’t really offer you any edge in your betting.

Mathematically speaking, the Paroli system has the same expected value as betting flat stakes the whole time. As any wager with a sportsbook or bet at a casino will have the odds stacked against you, you are actually going to lose money over time.

For this reason, it’s better suited to those who like to make their betting more fun or interesting, but are still aware that they are going to lose money in the long run.

Final Thoughts

Forget about placing bets on a team you believe will win at any price or a team you think will score a lot because there is a parallel universe out there when it comes to sports betting.

Mathematics is your friend here, and those who know how to use it to their advantage will do much better than those who don’t.

In short, arbitrage, value and matched betting are your best bets (pun intended) when it comes to mathematical betting strategies.

Unlike the other systems, they actually give you an edge over the bookmakers by taking advantage of when they make a mistake with their odds, or offer you valuable promotions.

If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments section below.


About the author

I'm an Australian guy who has used profitable sports betting to provide a decent side income (over a thousand dollars per month!) for myself while working full-time. I've set up the The Arb Academy to teach others how to do the same and achieve financial security through a second income stream!

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