Use this value betting calculator to determine the expected value for a particular bet. You can also use it to calculate your optimal stake based on the Kelly criterion. Detailed instructions are written below the calculator. Please select 'DESKTOP VIEW' or 'MOBILE VIEW' based on your device.
Value Bets Calculator Modes
We calculate the edge/value of a particular bet by comparing the sharp bookmaker odds with the soft bookmaker odds. The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this.
- Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. The most common form of value betting calculator. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities.
- Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. Use this if you want to directly compare sharp bookmaker and soft bookmaker odds for the same outcome. This will overestimate the value as it does not consider the sharp bookmaker vigorish, or profit margin.
- Mode 3: You know the sharp bookmaker odds (for all outcomes) and the soft bookmaker odds. Use this if you know the sharp bookmaker odds for all outcomes and want to take into account the vigorish, to work out their true estimate probabilities (most accurate).
Once you have calculated the edge/value, use the staking section to determine your optimal stake based on the Kelly criterion (instructions below).
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- Select your preferred mode for calculating value based on what you know. If you know the true probability of an outcome occurring, use Mode 1. If you know the sharp bookmaker odds for that outcome only, select Mode 2. If you know the sharp bookmaker odds for all outcomes of that match, use Mode 3 (the most accurate).
- Enter the soft bookmaker odds that you think represent value.
- If using Mode 1, enter the true probability of that outcome occurring.
- If using Mode 2, enter the equivalent sharp bookmaker odds for that outcome occurring.
- If using Mode 3, enter the number of possible outcomes for that match. Enter the sharp bookmaker odds for each of the outcomes.
- Examine the expected value of the bet. A positive number indicates positive expected value and a negative number, negative expected value. If you are satisfied, move onto the next section where you will calculate the optimal stake.
- Enter your total bankroll (across all bookmaker and financial accounts) and your preferred fractional Kelly amount. A higher Kelly amount will result in higher profits but a greater likelihood of going bust at some point.
- Your optimal stake based on the Kelly criterion will be displayed.
- (OPTIONAL) Round your stake to a custom value to avoid suspicion and prevent 'gubbing' of your account.
Comments, questions or feedback? Have an idea for a great new feature? Please get in contact with me via the contact page!
Disclaimer: The Arb Academy does not in any way guarantee the accuracy of this calculator. Use of the calculator does not in any way guarantee that you will make money. Remember that value betting is a long term strategy requiring many, many bets to achieve a statistically significant outcome.